Aurelia Capital Quarterly Briefing

Macro and portfolio update for the Board, Q2 2026. Eleven holdings, €480M dry powder, and two planned exits under review.

02 Macro snapshot

The eurozone economy expanded 0.9% while inflation eased to 2.3%, supporting ECB at 1.75% and EUR/USD at 1.14

0.9%
Eurozone GDP
year‑on‑year
2.3%
Headline inflation
HICP
1.75%
ECB policy rate
deposit facility
1.14
EUR/USD
spot

Source: Eurostat, ECB, Bloomberg. Data as of Q1 2026 closing.

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03 Sector exposure

Industrial exposure benefits from a weaker EUR, while consumer-facing holdings face margin pressure from sticky inflation

SectorWeightMacro driverImplication
Industrials34%EUR/USD at 1.14Exporter margins supported; order books steady
Software28%Eurozone stabilityCorporate IT spend remains resilient
Consumer22%Inflation 2.3%Discretionary incomes squeezed; margin compression
Healthcare16%Regulatory constancyDefensive; macro-insensitive, pipeline on track

Source: Aurelia Capital portfolio data, internal estimates.

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04 Portfolio heat

Two consumer companies are below plan, reducing aggregate EBITDA growth by an estimated 1.4 percentage points

CompanySectorEBITDA YoYStatus
Ind‑AIndustrials+9.0%On track
Ind‑BIndustrials+7.2%On track
Ind‑CIndustrials+8.1%On track
Soft‑ASoftware+6.5%On track
Soft‑BSoftware+7.1%On track
Soft‑CSoftware+5.4%On track
Cons‑CConsumer−3.2%Below plan
Cons‑DConsumer−1.1%Below plan
Cons‑EConsumer+3.0%On track
Hlth‑FHealthcare+5.6%On track
Hlth‑GHealthcare+4.3%On track

Source: Internal portfolio monitoring; EBITDA figures are unaudited year‑over‑year as of Q1 2026. Aggregate portfolio EBITDA +6.2%.

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05 Watch list

Four positions require close monitoring: two underperforming consumer names and two others flagged for valuation or regulatory risk

CompanyConcernActionOwner
Cons‑CRevenue down 11% QoQ; margin compressionInitiate strategic sale processMichael T.
Cons‑DCustomer churn; delayed product launchOperational turnaround plan and evaluate exitSarah L.
Soft‑BValuation stretched relative to growth profileMonitor Q2 results; consider sale if deceleration continuesDavid K.
Hlth‑FRegulatory uncertainty around pipeline assetEngage policy advisor; update risk assessmentDavid K.

Source: Investment team risk register, April 2026.

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06 Positioning

For the next two quarters, we recommend exiting the two consumer positions, preserving dry powder, and reweighting toward industrials

Exit two holdings

Sell the two underperforming consumer companies within 12 months. Recycle an estimated €200M into higher‑growth segments.

Preserve dry powder

Maintain the €480M reserve to deploy into resilient sectors. No further capital calls until exits are completed.

Reweight industrials

Increase industrial sector exposure by approximately 5 percentage points, funded by realised exits. Target industrials at ~39% of NAV.

Source: Aurelia Capital strategy memo, Q2 2026.

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07 Decision
Next steps

The Board is asked to approve the two planned exits and the deployment of up to €200M into selected industrials

Immediate action

Finalise sale mandates for Cons‑C and Cons‑D by mid‑May. Michael T. will present a reinvestment plan at the June Board meeting.

Capital discipline

Maintain €480M dry powder; no further capital calls until the two exits are completed and proceeds are deployed.

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08 Appendix

Macro forecast baseline and scenario assumptions

Indicator20252026e2027eSource
Eurozone GDP, y/y+0.5%+0.9%+1.2%ECB staff projections
HICP inflation2.9%2.3%2.0%Eurostat
ECB deposit rate2.00%1.75%1.50%Consensus economics
EUR/USD1.081.141.18Bloomberg median

Source: ECB, Eurostat, Bloomberg. e denotes estimate. As of March 2026.

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