Macro and portfolio update for the Board, Q2 2026. Eleven holdings, €480M dry powder, and two planned exits under review.
Source: Eurostat, ECB, Bloomberg. Data as of Q1 2026 closing.
| Sector | Weight | Macro driver | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 34% | EUR/USD at 1.14 | Exporter margins supported; order books steady |
| Software | 28% | Eurozone stability | Corporate IT spend remains resilient |
| Consumer | 22% | Inflation 2.3% | Discretionary incomes squeezed; margin compression |
| Healthcare | 16% | Regulatory constancy | Defensive; macro-insensitive, pipeline on track |
Source: Aurelia Capital portfolio data, internal estimates.
| Company | Sector | EBITDA YoY | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ind‑A | Industrials | +9.0% | On track |
| Ind‑B | Industrials | +7.2% | On track |
| Ind‑C | Industrials | +8.1% | On track |
| Soft‑A | Software | +6.5% | On track |
| Soft‑B | Software | +7.1% | On track |
| Soft‑C | Software | +5.4% | On track |
| Cons‑C | Consumer | −3.2% | Below plan |
| Cons‑D | Consumer | −1.1% | Below plan |
| Cons‑E | Consumer | +3.0% | On track |
| Hlth‑F | Healthcare | +5.6% | On track |
| Hlth‑G | Healthcare | +4.3% | On track |
Source: Internal portfolio monitoring; EBITDA figures are unaudited year‑over‑year as of Q1 2026. Aggregate portfolio EBITDA +6.2%.
| Company | Concern | Action | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cons‑C | Revenue down 11% QoQ; margin compression | Initiate strategic sale process | Michael T. |
| Cons‑D | Customer churn; delayed product launch | Operational turnaround plan and evaluate exit | Sarah L. |
| Soft‑B | Valuation stretched relative to growth profile | Monitor Q2 results; consider sale if deceleration continues | David K. |
| Hlth‑F | Regulatory uncertainty around pipeline asset | Engage policy advisor; update risk assessment | David K. |
Source: Investment team risk register, April 2026.
Sell the two underperforming consumer companies within 12 months. Recycle an estimated €200M into higher‑growth segments.
Maintain the €480M reserve to deploy into resilient sectors. No further capital calls until exits are completed.
Increase industrial sector exposure by approximately 5 percentage points, funded by realised exits. Target industrials at ~39% of NAV.
Source: Aurelia Capital strategy memo, Q2 2026.
The Board is asked to approve the two planned exits and the deployment of up to €200M into selected industrials
Finalise sale mandates for Cons‑C and Cons‑D by mid‑May. Michael T. will present a reinvestment plan at the June Board meeting.
Maintain €480M dry powder; no further capital calls until the two exits are completed and proceeds are deployed.
| Indicator | 2025 | 2026e | 2027e | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone GDP, y/y | +0.5% | +0.9% | +1.2% | ECB staff projections |
| HICP inflation | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.0% | Eurostat |
| ECB deposit rate | 2.00% | 1.75% | 1.50% | Consensus economics |
| EUR/USD | 1.08 | 1.14 | 1.18 | Bloomberg median |
Source: ECB, Eurostat, Bloomberg. e denotes estimate. As of March 2026.