Quarterly macro and portfolio briefing

Aurelia Capital. Board update covering eurozone macro context, portfolio trading, key watch items, and positioning for the next two quarters.

As of 2026-07-15. Source: provided facts; management reporting.

02 Summary
Executive summary

Macro is stable and the portfolio is growing, with consumer execution the near-term priority

+6.2%
Aggregate EBITDA growth year on year across 11 companies
2
Portfolio companies below plan, both in the consumer segment
€480M
Dry powder available for the next two quarters
  • 01

    Protect consumer EBITDA through pricing, mix and cost actions with weekly visibility on cash and working capital.

  • 02

    Maintain deployment discipline: prioritize add-ons in industrials and software where demand is more resilient.

  • 03

    Keep exit readiness on schedule: two exits remain planned within 12 months, with gating milestones each quarter.

02 / 08
03 Macro

Eurozone conditions are supportive, with inflation slightly above target and a stronger euro

Eurozone GDP growth
+0.9%

Modest growth backdrop, consistent with cautious demand assumptions.

Inflation
2.3%

Close to target, but still a constraint for consumer spending.

ECB policy rate
1.75%

Funding environment remains manageable for refinancings and add-ons.

EUR/USD
1.14

Stronger euro supports import costs, can pressure exporters.

Source: provided facts (GDP, inflation, ECB rate, EUR/USD).

03 / 08
04 Sector view

Our exposures skew to industrials and software, with consumer the main execution risk

34%

Industrials

EUR strength can pressure export pricing. Focus on backlog discipline and cost pass-through.

28%

Software

Supportive rates reduce financing friction for buyers. Prioritize retention and expansion motions.

22%

Consumer

Inflation at 2.3% keeps value sensitivity elevated. Tighten promo ROI and simplify assortments.

16%

Healthcare

Most defensive exposure. Emphasize compliance, reimbursement stability and pipeline execution.

Portfolio sector exposures
Industrials 34% Software 28% Consumer 22% Healthcare 16%
So what

Given the portfolio mix, our near-term variance to plan is dominated by consumer execution, not macro deterioration.

Source: portfolio sector exposure provided.

04 / 08
05 Portfolio

Nine of eleven companies are on or above plan, with two consumer underperformers flagged for action

Portfolio heat view (QTD trading vs plan)
Company Sector Status Primary driver Near-term focus
Company AIndustrials Above Backlog conversionCapacity planning
Company BSoftware On plan Renewals stableUpsell pipeline
Company CHealthcare On plan Volumes steadyCompliance readiness
Company DIndustrials On plan Input costs easingMargin discipline
Company ESoftware Above New logo winsOnboarding scale
Company FIndustrials On plan Order intake normalPricing governance
Company GConsumer Below Promo efficiencyPricing and mix reset
Company HConsumer Below Volume softnessSKU rationalization
Company IHealthcare On plan Payor stabilityWorking capital
Company JSoftware On plan Churn containedRetention playbook
Company KIndustrials Above Operational leverageCapex sequencing

Source: management reporting; status classification provided (2 below plan in consumer).

05 / 08
06 Actions

The two consumer underperformers have a 90-day stabilization plan with clear leading indicators

Below plan

Company G

Primary issue: promo efficiency and margin dilution.

  • ·Re-price top 50 SKUs and remove unprofitable promo mechanics.
  • ·Weekly gross margin bridge and contribution by channel.
  • ·Cash discipline: cap inventory days and pause low-return spend.
Lead indicators

Promo ROI, gross margin per order, inventory days.

Below plan

Company H

Primary issue: volume softness and complexity in assortment.

  • ·SKU rationalization to improve availability and reduce markdown risk.
  • ·Reset trade spend: prioritize highest conversion channels and regions.
  • ·Cost actions: renegotiate logistics lanes and align labor to volume.
Lead indicators

Sell-through, availability, markdown rate, logistics cost per unit.

Source: portfolio status provided; action plans reflect standard operating levers for consumer variance.

06 / 08
07 Capital and exits

With €480M dry powder, we can fund add-ons while keeping two exits on a controlled 12-month path

€480M
Dry powder. Maintain underwriting discipline with consumer stabilization as a precondition for major redeployment.
2
Exits planned within 12 months. Readiness activities are front-loaded to keep optionality on timing.
Board focus

Confirm exit gating milestones each quarter and approve add-on screening concentrated in industrials and software.

Exit execution roadmap (next 12 months)
Q3 2026

Readiness

Equity story, KPI pack, and quality of earnings scope aligned.

Q4 2026

Market prep

Advisor selection, vendor diligence, buyer mapping.

H1 2027

Run processes

Launch and execute two exit processes with timing flexibility.

By July 2027

Close

Target completion for both exits, subject to market conditions.

Source: dry powder and exit count provided; timeline expresses sequencing, not a commitment to fixed dates.

07 / 08
08 Positioning

Over the next two quarters, we will watch a small set of signals and bias decisions toward resilience

Watch list
Macro signals
  • ·Inflation persistence above 2.3% and second-round wage effects.
  • ·ECB policy tone and credit availability for sponsor-backed borrowers.
  • ·EUR/USD follow-through from 1.14 and impact on export pricing.
Portfolio signals
  • ·Consumer: margin quality, inventory days, promo ROI for Companies G and H.
  • ·Software: renewal rates, churn cohorts, and pipeline coverage.
  • ·Industrials: order intake and pricing realization versus input costs.
Positioning recommendations
Protect

Consumer stabilization

Prioritize EBITDA and cash conversion over growth until leading indicators normalize.

Deploy

Selective add-ons

Use dry powder for add-ons in industrials and software where integration value is clear.

Prepare

Exit readiness gates

Run readiness now so we can choose timing, rather than be forced by timelines.

Board asks

Endorse the consumer stabilization cadence, confirm add-on screening focus, and validate the exit gating plan for the next 12 months.

Source: watch items derived from provided macro indicators and portfolio mix; recommendations align to current exposure and variance drivers.

08 / 08
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