Aurelia Capital quarterly review for the Board. Soft landing, a sound book, and a clear deployment agenda for the next two quarters.
15-minute slot · Q1 2026 · Confidential
Eurozone soft landing holds: GDP +0.9% y/y, inflation 2.3%, ECB at 1.75%.
Industrials (34%) and software (28%) fund performance; consumer (22%) is the pressure seat.
Next two quarters: fortify the two underperformers, stage two exits, deploy dry powder against a high bar.
Source: Aurelia Capital macro desk, latest print preliminary for eurozone series.
Capex and supply-chain normalisation support order books. Overweight stance still justified.
Lower rates aid ARR multiples. Prefer recurring revenue; avoid pure usage bets.
Volume soft, pricing power uneven. Two names already below plan. No add capital until recovery path clear.
Defensive cash flows. Hold; tolerate modest entry multiples for quality assets.
Source: Aurelia Capital portfolio weights at quarter close.
| Company | Sector | vs plan | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northline Systems | Software | On | +11% |
| Atlas Components | Industrials | On | +9% |
| Helios MedTech | Healthcare | On | +8% |
| Forge Precision | Industrials | On | +7% |
| Vertex Cloud | Software | On | +7% |
| Meridian Retail | Consumer | Below | −4% |
| Lumen Goods | Consumer | Below | −6% |
Source: Portfolio ops weekly; remaining four companies on or above plan (not shown).
Nine of eleven companies track plan. Aggregate remains +6.2% because industrials and software more than cover the consumer shortfall.
Traffic soft in mid-tier formats. Margin plan missed on promo intensity.
Category destocking longer than budgeted. Fixed-cost recovery delayed one quarter.
On plan, buyer interest confirmed. Target process launch within two quarters. Hold sales readiness workstream.
Recurring the story; net retention supports a growth multiple. Dual-track strategic and sponsor process.
90-day cost and promo plan under review. Board gate before any follow-on capital.
Working-capital release and SKU rationalisation in flight. Monthly ops cadence with IC chair.
Watch list is closed to four. Additions require Investment Committee notice. Dry powder is not reserved for these names until remediation signs clear.
No trim. Rehearse Atlas Components for process launch. Prefer buy-and-build bolt-ons under existing platforms.
Stage Vertex Cloud dual-track exit. New names only with 90%+ recurring share and net retention above 110%.
Freeze add-ons to Meridian and Lumen until plan lock. Target 90-day recovery pack, then reassess. No new consumer platform before then.
Ring-fence dry powder for industrials and software primary and for two reserved bolt-ons. Require IC sign-off above €75M ticket size.
Approve 90-day plans for Meridian and Lumen; no follow-on capital without IC clearance.
Authorise process launch prep on Atlas Components and Vertex Cloud this quarter.
Reserve €480M dry powder for industrials and software; tickets above €75M require full IC.
Ops and deal teams circulate the two 90-day consumer recovery packs and the exit prep calendars within ten business days. Owner: CIO office.