Authorize phase one for an April 2027 opening, but sign only after the landlord accepts a six-month break option and one anchor wholesale customer commits conditional volume.
Binding owner decision · Lease signature target: 18 July 2026
Confirmed demand already takes East Yard to 95% utilization. Staging supplies enough headroom for the upside case while avoiding the full lease’s higher up-front and fixed commitment.
Source: user brief. Financial figures are fictional planning estimates.
2026 forecast
2027 confirmed
Base
Upside
The base case exceeds internal capacity by 70 t. The upside case exceeds it by 150 t.
Source: user brief. Utilization and overflow are derived from supplied demand and 620 t practical capacity.
| Option | Up-front | Fixed cost | Variable effect | Capacity | Start | Main drawback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stay at East Yard | €0.18m | €0.00m | No change, then +€0.74/kg overflow | 620 t | 2 mo | Misses base demand internally |
| Outsource overflow | €0.05m | €0.06m | +€0.74/kg outsourced | 820 t | 3 mo | Quality and supplier dependence |
| Full Westhaven | €1.84m | €0.62m | −€0.19/kg above 520 t | 1,050 t | 9 mo | Commits before demand is secured |
| Staged Westhaven | €1.16m | €0.44m | −€0.11/kg above 520 t | 860 t | 8 mo | Second fit-out above 820 t |
Source: user brief. Financial figures are fictional planning estimates.
East Yard practical capacity
90 t headroom above the 770 t upside case.
Upside demand: 770 t
Source: user brief. Phase-one addition of 240 t is derived from 860 t staged capacity less 620 t East Yard capacity.
€0.46m staged · €0.31m full
€1.12m staged · €1.39m full
The full lease overtakes staged value only by 2031, while requiring €0.68m more up-front cash and €0.18m more annual fixed cost.
Source: user brief. Financial figures are fictional planning estimates.
2028 demand: 645 t
2031 cumulative benefit versus outsourcing
2028 demand: 735 t
2031 cumulative benefit versus outsourcing
2028 demand: 835 t
2031 cumulative benefit versus outsourcing
The 74 t prospective grocery customer separates much of the 690 t base forecast from confirmed demand. A conditional volume commitment is therefore a lease-signing gate, not a commercial afterthought.
Source: user brief. Financial figures are fictional planning estimates.
| Risk | Exposure | Mitigation | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demand | Unsigned grocery customer represents 74 t | Secure conditional volume commitment before lease signature | Gate |
| Lease | Proposed term is eight years | Require six-month break if permits or anchor volume fail | Gate |
| Hiring | Six roles needed; benchmark is ten weeks | Start two lead-operator searches at signing | Watch |
| Quality | Equipment differs from East Yard | Four-week parallel validation and 30 blinded panels | Control |
| Launch | Three weeks contingency on a 36-week path | Protect contingency and monitor the critical path | Watch |
East Yard remains above the service threshold on confirmed demand, and base-case overflow shifts to outsourcing with +€0.74/kg cost, eight-week commitments and the pilot’s quality record.
Source: user brief.
Conditional wholesale volume commitment secured.
Six-month option if permits or anchor volume fail.
Target: 18 July 2026. Begin eight-month opening plan.
Source: user brief. Financial figures are fictional planning estimates.
Conditional volume commitment
Maintain lease gate discipline
Permits and anchor volume
Target 18 July 2026
Three weeks contingency
Two roles begin at signing
Ten-week benchmark
Parallel roast protocol
Four weeks and 30 panels
Timing is relative to approval except for the supplied lease-signature target.
Source: user brief.