Northwind Mobility Q2 2028 QBR. Growth remained strong and unit economics improved, but fleet availability missed plan because battery refurbishment capacity did not keep pace with the fleet.
Executive decision required: approve the Q3 recovery spend and defer Eastmere so reliable supply comes before faster expansion.
Executive take: Q2 was not a demand failure. Subscriber growth and margin improved, but unavailable bikes reduced subscription months, lifted churn and held back NPS. The Q3 plan should spend €0.50m to restore capacity and avoid €0.86m Q3 Eastmere cash use.
Source: user brief. Values are fictional.
| Metric | Q2 actual | Q2 plan | Q1 actual | Q2 vs plan | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | €12.84m | €13.20m | €11.46m | −2.7% | Watch |
| Active subscribers | 38,420 | 39,000 | 35,880 | −1.5% | Watch |
| Net adds | 2,540 | 3,120 | 2,310 | −580 | Watch |
| Gross margin | 41.8% | 40.5% | 39.6% | +1.3 pp | Ahead |
| Monthly churn | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | +0.3 pp | Watch |
| Fleet availability | 91.6% | 95.0% | 93.8% | −3.4 pp | Off plan |
| NPS | 48 | 52 | 46 | −4 | Watch |
| Operating cash flow | €0.74m | €0.52m | €0.18m | +€0.22m | Ahead |
Source: user brief. Status is working judgment based on Q2 versus plan.
The €0.36m gap versus plan was driven by fewer subscription months from bike unavailability. Price helped, but did not offset availability, accessory and corporate activation pressure.
Source: user brief. Bridge values sum to −€0.36m after rounding.
Margin quality improved in Q2, but one offset is directly tied to the availability problem: expedited battery logistics reduced gross margin by 0.3 pp.
Source: user brief.
| City | Q2 revenue | YoY growth | Subscribers | Availability | Monthly churn | Readout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northport | €4.18m | 18% | 12,480 | 94.2% | 2.5% | Stable |
| Linden | €3.36m | 24% | 10,140 | 92.1% | 2.8% | Watch |
| Westhaven | €2.91m | 31% | 8,960 | 89.4% | 3.4% | Constrained |
| Bellweather | €2.39m | 27% | 6,840 | 88.7% | 3.2% | Constrained |
Management implication: availability-aware acquisition caps should apply first in Westhaven and Bellweather, where growth is high but availability is below 90% and churn is above the company average.
Source: user brief. Readout is working judgment based on availability and churn.
Source: user brief.
Required landing: add the second internal battery shift by 22 July and contract 70 external units per week from 12 August.
Source: user brief. Recovery capacity equals 225 internal plus 70 external.
| Q3 scenario | Condition | Revenue | Subscribers | Gross margin | Availability | Monthly churn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downside | External refurbishment starts four weeks late | €13.21m | 39,980 | 41.5% | 91.9% | 3.2% |
| Base forecast | Current recovery pacing | €13.62m | 40,650 | 42.4% | 93.8% | 2.8% |
| Recovery case | Capacity actions land by 15 August | €13.88m | 41,120 | 42.2% | 95.1% | 2.6% |
Source: user brief. Scenario deltas are derived from supplied scenario values.
| Risk | Probability / impact | Business effect | Owner | Mitigation | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| External supplier qualification slips | Medium / high | Downside scenario if external refurbishment starts four weeks late | Not assigned | Lock qualification path and escalation for 70 units per week | Top risk |
| Second-shift hiring fills only 9 of 14 roles | Medium / medium | Internal capacity uplift misses 225 units per week | Not assigned | Daily hiring funnel review until roles are filled | Watch |
| Acquisition caps reduce Q3 net adds by up to 420 | High / low | Subscriber growth slows while reliability recovers | Not assigned | Cap Westhaven and Bellweather first, monitor churn weekly | Tradeoff |
| Aged battery returns exceed forecast by 8% | Medium / medium | Refurbishment demand rises above planned capacity | Not assigned | Review returns weekly and pull external volume forward if needed | Watch |
Source: user brief. Risk owners were not supplied and must be assigned in the QBR.
| Workstream | Action | Due | Q3 cost / cash effect | Owner | Measure of done |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operations | Add a second internal battery shift, raising weekly capacity from 170 to 225 | 22 July | €0.19m cost | Samira Holt | 225 units per week internal capacity |
| Procurement | Contract 70 external refurbishment units a week | 12 August | €0.31m cost | Emil Voss | Qualified supplier live at 70 units per week |
| Product | Introduce availability-aware acquisition caps in Westhaven and Bellweather | 15 July | Not specified | Jo Neri | Caps live and reviewed weekly |
| Customer | Offer proactive swap reservations to 2,400 high-usage subscribers | 29 July | Not specified | Lena Arvid | 2,400 subscribers offered reservations |
| Expansion | Defer Eastmere launch from October 2028 to February 2029 | Q3 decision | €0.86m Q3 cash use avoided | Executive team | Launch plan reset and spend held |
Source: user brief. Unspecified costs are left as not specified rather than estimated.
Approve €0.50m Q3 recovery spend to add internal and external battery refurbishment capacity, restore availability and protect churn.
Second internal shift plus 70 external refurbishment units per week.
Recovery case if capacity actions land by 15 August.
Defer Eastmere from October 2028 to February 2029, avoiding €0.86m Q3 cash use while the fleet recovery is executed.
Decision due: this QBR. The August 15 recovery-case gate depends on immediate approval and owner alignment.
Source: user brief. Values are fictional.